The problem with Tripura exit poll predictions

After Tripura Assembly Election Results 2018'Poor Man's CM Manik Sarkar Likely to be Replaced by'RSS Man Biplab Kumar Deb

After Tripura Assembly Election Results 2018'Poor Man's CM Manik Sarkar Likely to be Replaced by'RSS Man Biplab Kumar Deb

Three north-eastern states - Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura are eagerly waiting for the Assembly Election Results 2018.

Political bigwigs in the state as well as at the Centre are already chalking out strategies for a rational outcome after Saturday following prediction of a hung assembly by several exit polls and internal assessments showing a tough race to the one-third mark (20 seats) in the 60-member House. In Nagaland, too, counting of votes for 59 seats will begin at 8am. Meghalya and Nagaland assembly polls were held on February 27. Chief Electoral Officer FR Kharkonger said, 13 counting centres will be set up in the state.

Ahead of Saturday's counting, both the CPI-M and the BJP claimed that they will form the next government in the state.

They predicted a victory for the Left parties in four to seven ST reserved seats while the BJP alliance was said to have victory possibilities in 13 to 16 seats.

Headlines Tripura, a local cable TV channel and others, said the "people's pulse" was in favour of the BJP.

The party had contested 50 seats in the last assembly polls in 2013 and its candidates forfeited their deposits on 49 seats.

"Over 75 per cent electorate had cast their votes till 4 p.m". While the Congress has been ruling Meghalaya for 10 years.

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Polling to Charilam (ST) seat in Tripura was postponed till the 12th of next month due to the death of CPIM candidate Ramendra Narayan Debbarma. In the north-eastern state, BJP+ NDPP are likely to win on 27-32 seats.

Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) Tripura State Secretary Bijan Dhar said the Left parties were "overconfident" of forming the next state government.

The AxisMyIndia exit polls predict an overwhelming majority for the saffron party, which it gives 44-50 seats and left is excepted to win in 9-15.

Congress has fielded 59 candidates in Meghalaya, while the BJP has fielded 47 candidates.

Two exit polls have predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party will dethrone the 25-year-old Left Front government in Tripura and consolidate its position in Meghalaya and Nagaland.

More bad news for Congress president Rahul Gandhi: His party's vote share and seat will be 7.2 per cent and 2 respectively, according to the poll. It has given the Left 14-23 seats with vote share of 45-46 per cent. Some of the main candidates to watch for are: Mukul Sangma (Meghalaya), Biplab Kumar Deb (Tripura), Agatha Sangma (Meghalaya), Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland), TR Zeliang (Nagaland) and Manik Sarkar (Tripura).

From that perspective, the best way to interpret the Tripura exit poll results by the three agencies is to identify the "consensus view", which in this case is the fact that the polls are a two-cornered contest between the Left Front and the BJP-IPFT alliance, and that it is likely to be a rather close contest between the two alliances. It has also predicted that the ruling Naga People's Front (NPF) will bag 19-25 seats.

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